Perspectives world

		Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)			Inflation (period average, in %)
		2023	2024	2025	2023	2024	2025
Euro area	Euro area	0.5	0.7	1.0	5.4	2.4	2.1
	Germany	-0.1	0.0	0.6	6.1	2.6	2.6
	France	1.1	1.1	0.8	5.7	2.6	1.8
	Italy	0.8	0.6	0.8	5.9	1.0	1.4
	Spain	2.7	2.4	2.1	3.4	3.0	2.0
	Netherlands	0.1	0.6	1.3	4.1	3.0	2.2
	Belgium	1.4	1.0	1.0	2.3	4.1	2.1
	Ireland	-3.2	-0.9	4.6	5.2	1.6	1.9
	Slovakia	1.6	2.3	2.0	11.0	2.9	5.2
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	0.0	1.0	2.7	12.1	2.5	2.5
	Hungary	-0.8	1.2	3.0	17.0	3.7	3.8
	Bulgaria	2.0	2.2	2.6	8.6	3.1	3.0
	Poland	0.1	2.9	3.3	10.9	4.1	3.9
	Romania	2.4	2.0	3.1	9.7	5.4	4.1
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	0.3	1.0	1.3	7.1	2.6	2.3
	Sweden	-0.1	0.7	1.9	5.9	2.9	1.2
	Norway	1.1	0.6	1.2	5.7	3.2	2.3
	Switzerland	0.7	1.4	1.5	2.1	1.2	0.9
Emerging markets	China	5.2	4.8	4.6	0.2	0.5	1.4
	India*	8.2	6.5	6.1	5.4	4.6	4.9
	South Africa	0.7	0.9	1.6	6.1	4.8	4.7
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	5.1	3.1	2.7	53.9	58.9	29.6
	Brazil	2.9	3.1	2.1	4.6	4.3	4.1
Other advanced economies	United States	2.9	2.8	1.9	4.1	2.9	2.4
	Japan	1.7	0.0	1.2	3.3	2.6	2.1
	Australia	2.0	1.2	2.1	5.6	3.4	2.8
	New Zealand	0.9	0.7	1.9	5.7	3.1	2.1
	Canada	1.2	1.1	1.7	3.6	2.5	2.1
* fiscal year from April-March						18/10/2024

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
		18/10/2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Euro area	Euro area (refi rate)	3.40	3.15	2.65	2.15	2.15
Euro area	Euro area (depo rate)	3.25	3.00	2.50	2.00	2.00
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	4.25	3.75	3.50	3.50	3.50
	Hungary (base rate)	6.50	6.25	6.00	5.50	5.25
	Bulgaria	-
	Poland	5.75	5.75	5.75	5.25	4.75
	Romania	6.50	6.25	6.00	5.75	5.50
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	5.00	5.00	4.50	4.25	4.00
	Sweden	3.25	2.75	2.50	2.25	2.50
	Norway	4.50	4.50	4.00	3.50	3.50
	Switzerland	1.00	0.75	0.50	0.50	0.50
Emerging markets	China (7d rev.repo)	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50
	India	6.50	6.50	6.25	5.75	5.75
	South Africa	8.00	7.75	7.50	7.25	7.25
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	50.00	47.50	42.50	35.00	30.00
	Brazil	10.75	10.75	10.75	10.75	10.75
Other advanced economies	United States (mid-target range)	4.875	4.375	3.875	3.375	3.125
	Japan	0.25	0.25	0.40	0.40	0.50
	Australia	4.35	4.35	4.10	3.85	3.60
	New Zealand	4.75	4.25	3.75	3.50	3.50
	Canada	4.25	3.50	3.00	2.75	2.75

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
		18/10/2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Euro area	Germany	2.20	2.25	2.30	2.30	2.30
	France	2.93	3.15	3.20	3.20	3.15
	Italy	3.39	3.65	3.70	3.70	3.70
	Spain	2.90	3.05	3.10	3.10	3.10
	Netherlands	2.48	2.65	2.70	2.70	2.70
	Belgium	2.79	2.95	3.00	3.00	3.00
	Ireland	2.56	2.65	2.70	2.70	2.70
	Slovakia	3.18	3.35	3.40	3.40	3.40
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	3.90	3.90	4.00	4.10	4.10
	Hungary	6.65	6.20	6.00	5.70	5.60
	Bulgaria*	3.90	3.95	4.00	4.00	3.85
	Poland	5.59	5.30	5.00	4.80	4.30
	Romania	6.86	7.00	7.00	7.00	7.00
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	4.10	4.15	4.20	4.20	4.20
	Sweden	2.03	2.05	2.10	2.10	2.10
	Norway	3.60	3.65	3.70	3.70	3.70
	Switzerland	0.45	0.50	0.55	0.55	0.55
Emerging markets	China	2.08	2.10	2.30	2.40	2.50
	India	6.82	6.80	6.85	6.85	6.85
	South Africa	9.30	9.25	9.25	9.25	9.25
	Russia	15.13	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	27.71	27.00	25.50	24.00	24.00
	Brazil	12.85	12.50	12.20	12.10	12.10
Other advanced economies	United States	4.11	4.00	4.10	4.10	4.10
	Japan	0.97	1.15	1.15	1.25	1.25
	Australia	4.33	4.20	4.30	4.30	4.30
	New Zealand	4.46	4.35	4.45	4.45	4.45
	Canada	3.17	3.05	3.15	3.15	3.15
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
	18/10/2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
USD per EUR	1.08	1.09	1.10	1.11	1.12
CZK per EUR	25.23	24.90	24.60	24.40	24.40
HUF per EUR	399.89	400.00	402.00	404.00	405.00
PLN per EUR	4.31	4.33	4.27	4.26	4.25
BGN per EUR	1.96	1.96	1.96	1.96	1.96
RON per EUR	4.97	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
GBP per EUR	0.83	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.86
SEK per EUR	11.42	11.35	11.30	11.25	11.20
NOK per EUR	11.81	11.60	11.40	11.30	11.30
CHF per EUR	0.94	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.95
BRL per USD	5.64	5.64	5.61	5.59	5.56
INR per USD	84.04	83.82	83.44	83.06	82.69
ZAR per USD	17.58	17.53	17.45	17.37	17.29
RUB per USD	96.30	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD	34.29	36.00	37.67	39.45	41.25
RMB per USD	7.10	7.13	7.15	7.20	7.25
JPY per USD	150.04	153.00	150.00	145.00	140.00
USD per AUD	0.67	0.69	0.70	0.71	0.71
USD per NZD	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.62	0.63
CAD per USD	1.38	1.38	1.36	1.35	1.34

World